President Joe Biden is under political pressure to strike back against Iran after militants sponsored by Iran killed three American soldiers and injured scores more on Sunday. Biden has been hesitant to act because he fears starting a wider conflict[1].
In Iran and throughout the Middle East, the Republican party is demanding a crushing military counteroffensive against Iran’s terrorist troops. Nonetheless, according to the Biden administration, it takes considerable precautions to safeguard American forces deployed globally[2].
It is crucial to remember that the situation is still changing and that there isn’t much information at this time.
Understanding the Context of the Iran US Relationship
There has been tension in the US-Iran relationship for many years. Since April 7, 1980, there have been no formal diplomatic relations between the two nations. Rather, the United States’ protecting power in Iran is Switzerland, and Iran’s protecting power in the United States is Pakistan[3].
The most notable event in the turbulent history between the United States and Iran was the Iranian Revolution of 1979, which resulted in the fall of the US-backed Shah of Iran and the creation of an Islamic republic.
In addition, Iranian terrorists took control of the American embassy in Tehran, sparking a 444-day hostage crisis. Since then, disagreements between the two nations have centered on a number of topics, such as Iran’s nuclear program and human rights abuses, and support for terrorist organizations[4].
Key Players and Influencers US Iran relations
For many years, the United States and Iran have had a complicated and tense relationship. The US policy against Iran is significantly influenced by the National Security Council (NSC)[5]. President Biden has already outlined his objectives for resolving the Iranian nuclear issue in the short term, but he will need to swiftly devise a plan of action and staff his administration’s institutions at the same time. Congress will also be crucial in determining the legal and political direction of US policy toward Iran[5].
Nuclear Deal Fallout
Wide-ranging effects have resulted from the United States’ departure from the Iran Nuclear Deal. The 2015 agreement sought to relieve economic sanctions in exchange for Iran’s nuclear program being curtailed. Relations between the United States and Iran have significantly deteriorated as a result of the United States’ departure from the agreement in 2018 and the reimposition of sanctions that followed[6][7].
The decision’s effects are being felt all throughout the world. The US sanctions have made it more difficult for the European Union to continue trying to save the agreement. In response, Iran has increased the amount of uranium enrichment, raising questions on the nation’s nuclear capability. The US has further charged Iran with destabilizing and aiding terrorist groups[8].
Public Opinion and Domestic Dynamics
Public opinion on military intervention in Iran
The idea of taking military action against Iran is divisive in both Israel and the US. The threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program is cited by proponents of a strike against Iran as casus belli[9]. But the Chinese and Russians don’t seem to be in favor of a military attack, and
Political narratives are significantly shaped by public opinion[10].
Iranians have long harbored animosity toward the United States due to the country’s history of economic imperialism in the region and its involvement in the coup that toppled Mosaddegh, according to a recent study in the Harvard Political Review. The report also emphasizes that Iranians can see American military assistance for demonstrators as a conspiracy by the self-serving Americans rather than as a demonstration for freedom[11].
The idea of taking military action against Iran is divisive in both Israel and the US. The threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program is cited by proponents of a strike against Iran as casus belli. But the Chinese and Russians don’t seem to be in favor of a military attack, and lean toward accepting a nuclear Iran[12].
Congressional Debates and Resolutions
A number of proposals and resolutions, such as the “Protect Our Communities from DUIs Act” and the “No Immigration Benefits for Hamas Terrorists Act,” are presently being considered by the US Congress. Due to the complexity of the legislative process, few bills and resolutions will ever become laws[13].
International Reactions and Alliances
Global Perspectives
For many years, the relationship between the United States and Iran has piqued curiosity throughout the world. An interactive reference to current international disputes that the US is concerned about is available from the Council on Foreign Relations. This includes the US-Iran standoff[14]. The handbook offers tools and background information on the conflict.
Prior to Soleimani’s passing, worries about Iran have decreased in a number of nations, including the US, according to a recent Pew Research Center study . The article also discusses how people throughout the world perceive U.S. policy toward Iran[15] and how other Middle Eastern and North African nations see Iran’s position in the region.
A viewpoint outlining how Iran’s domestic politics impact important foreign policy and national security matters, such as the nation’s standing internationally and in relation to the US, has been released by the RAND Corporation[16] ·.
It is crucial to remember that the situation is still changing and that there isn’t much information at this time. It is advisable to keep up with the news from dependable sources in order to be aware of any updates.
Middle East alliances and rivalries
There has always been rivalry and alliance in the Middle East, which makes it a complicated region. An article published in The Globe and Mail claims that the ties within the region are dynamic and that each participant has interests that occasionally overlap and conflict with those of both allies and foes[17].
A report on the main power rivalry in the Middle East has been released by the Council on Foreign Relations. As the United States has debated its role in the Middle East 2, the research outlines the ways in which Russia, China, India, and the European Union have sought greater influence in the region[18].
The Military Conundrum
Military strategies for strike on Iran
In the event of hostilities with Iran, the United States has a variety of military options at its disposal. The F-22 Raptor would play a crucial role in the first few minutes as the United States attempted to achieve air superiority over Iranian skies, according to a piece published in The National Interest[19]. The essay also emphasizes how dangerous Iran’s capabilities for denying access and areas of denial are to the United States .
A paper on US strategy toward Iran has been released by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. The paper emphasizes how crucial it is to maintain diplomacy while reestablishing deterrence[20].
Additionally, the report lays out a gray zone strategy that entails responding forcefully to Iranian tests in order to strengthen deterrence, using both denial and punishment as forms of deterrence, pursuing a balanced approach that avoids needless escalation and excessive restraint, acting asymmetrically and unpredictable in order to take advantage of Iran’s preoccupation with risk management, changing Tehran’s incentive framework by not backing it into a corner, going long rather than big, and expanding gray zone options so that vertical escalation is prevented is not the only choice available to U.S. officials[21].
Military Preparedness and Readiness U.S. military
The readiness of the US military is a complicated subject that need for a deep comprehension of the logistical difficulties and available resources. Nearly two decades of conflict, according to a U.S. Government Accountability Office article, have diminished U.S. military readiness. The Department of Defense should be prepared to conduct operations in all areas of combat, including ground, sea, air, space, and cyberspace, according to the National Defense Strategy[22].
An alternative framework for military readiness and national preparedness has been established by the U.S. Army War College. It harmonizes current notions of readiness with all these challenging unsolved concerns. 2. The framework aims to address the questions of how we can determine if the country is ready for war and whether it is[23].
In conclusion, there are a variety of factors contributing to the growing political pressure on President Biden to attack Iran following the devastating loss of American lives. The intricate web created by the geopolitical, historical, national, and international variables necessitates serious thought. The choices made in the upcoming days will surely influence the direction of international relations as the entire world watches.
